These 4 codes can be used to estimate climate sensitivity by using the tropical temperature of the models participating in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) and simulating either the Last Glacial Maximum or the mid-Pliocene Warm Period.

Any climate properties can replace the variables x or y, following the theory of emergent constraints.

A detailed description of each method can be found in: M. Renoult, J.D. Annan, J.C. Hargreaves, N. Sagoo, C. Flynn, M.-L. Kapsch, U. Mikolajewicz, R. Ohgaito, T. Mauritsen, Submitted. A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP.

The Bayesian codes are using the package PyMC3: Salvatier J., Wiecki T.V., Fonnesbeck C. (2016) Probabilistic programming in Python using PyMC3. PeerJ Computer Science 2:e55 DOI: 10.7717/peerj-cs.55. See https://docs.pymc.io for installation.

The codes are using the package adjustText for esthetic plots. Please refer to https://github.com/Phlya/adjustText for installation.

Other used packages are included in the standard Anaconda Distribution.

For any inquiries or technical questions, please contact Martin Renoult (Stockholm University) martin.renoult@misu.su.se

23/12/2019: for macOS Catalina (10.15) users: There could be an issue coming from PyMC3 3.8 and Theano (codes are running but performances are extremely reduced, the right c++ compiler is not found). It seems installing new command lines tools through Xcode might solve the issue. The codes have been updated to the new PyMC3 3.8!